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Do you think Caroline Lucas has a chance of winning the seat of Brighton Pavilions for the Greens?

Public Comments

1. Quite possibly. A poll in Cambridge the other day put the greens 4% in front, so it can happen in Brighton as well.
2. I have been to the Brighton Pavilion but I didn't see her there. Does she look after the lawn?
3. It's quite possible....
4. Yes,and so do the bookies. The Greens were 5/6 favourites,Conservatives 2/1 and Labour 3/1 when I checked. Online bookies Betfair put her chances at 51%.
5. NO Chance whatsover
6. This seat is too hard to call. In 2005 the Greens came third with about 20% of the vote. Labour held the seat with about 35% of the vote, an 11.5% lead over the second placed Tories. This seat is a tactical nightmare. Was 2005 a one off? Will people this time try to defeat the candidate? If they had any problem with David Lepper, he has retired anyway and is not the Labour candidate. If tactical voting is an element, what will be the tactic? Will it be to remove Labour? Or will it be to prevent the Tory winning, which is traditionally the most common tactical vote (Lab/Lib vote swapping)? The Greens and Lib Dems collectively polled enough to win the seat in 2005 if people voted for one or the other. A less likely tactical vote for the Tories could also oust Labour here, but that tactic is not so common, Labour voters are far more likely to vote for someone who can beat the Tory, if Labour are destined to lose. My view is that this seat is a rarity in England, a 4 way marginal, where even the 4th place Lib Dems could possibly take it. Expect a slightly better showing for UKIP than in 2005, and UKIP votes are going to cost the Tories more than any other party.